5 Reasons why Flash will take over Gaming
by Paolo on Jul.29, 2009, under News
I will admit that when I first became a Rich Internet Application (RIA) developer, I initially threw my hat in with Microsoft’s Silverlight. It was hugely advantageous to my career to be a publicized early adopter of the technology. However, as a gaming platform, Silverlight does not have nearly as many tools, momentum, community and install base as Flash. And, with the downturn in the economy, there isn’t very much traction in creating Silverlight portals for free games supported by ad revenue. Also, good luck finding sponsors.
Flash does not to seem to be faring better in the current economy. Sponsorships and eCPMs are down. And as if the consternation of lowered wages for indie Flash developers couldn’t be worse, Greg Mclanahan, the Community and Developer Relations Manager from Kongregate, stepped on the proverbial landmine by saying to Flash game developers “don’t expect to be paid by the hour” and “no one asked you to make these games anyway.” As if the economy hasn’t already knocked down the spirits of many Flash entrepreneurs, this was like getting kicked in the groin from who was thought to be a partner in the Flash gaming revolution.
With all these issues, there are some who would dare to tell Flash developers to charge money for their games and to no longer accept the status quo of begging for sponsorships and getting fractions of a penny for every ad that is seen on your game. This may seem insane, especially in this economy, but here are 5 reasons why this is not only a viable business strategy, but also because there are serious market eruptions that will happen in the next several months that will put indie Flash game developers on the forefront of a new age of gaming.
1) Flash on Smartphones
While everyone is running towards the iPhone gold rush, and having to learn how to program on a proprietary API, Adobe is busting open the door for Flash developers to have their games on the next generation of Smartphones. You won’t have to learn a completely new language or buy proprietary hardware or software to get your games onto these cellphones, Adobe is doing most of the grunt work for you. And while everyone and their uncle is gunning to make a buck on the iPhone with Apple taking a cut off profits from your games, the larger Smartphone audience will be clamoring for the same love and attention from entrepreneurial game makers. And it doesn’t hurt that Flash will come with built-in multi-touch support.
2) Flash and GPUs
One of the major setbacks of Flash has always been performance. Actionscript 3.0 has significantly increased the speed and potential for many Flash games, including the ability to show true 3D objects. But software acceleration isn’t good enough for us and Adobe has been working hard with Nvidia to allow Flash to finally access hardware for greater acceleration of 3D effects in the Flash player. This is incredible potential for indie Flash developers who want to utilize even more effects, animations and game play elements that were previously out of reach for lack of processor power. The last performance hurdle for Flash is about to be cleared.
3) Facebook and MySpace
Both these social networking conglomerates have been opening their doors and reaching out for more games that use their APIs. There is huge potential for the savvy developer to create the next set of game portals on highly viral networks, all in the same web application. Right now there is an abundance of AJAX-based games on Facebook, but Flash is largely untapped. This is a goldmine ready to be struck.
4) Adobe AIR
This has been a largely untapped gaming medium that indie Flash developers have been neglecting. Having a game installed directly on the computer and running on the OS taskbar in fullscreen is a significant step towards full realization of a viable gaming medium for the PC. I’m not sure why not enough indie game developers have sought to use Adobe AIR to install a game directly on the users computer. Perhaps in the next several months, when Flash developers start charging money for people to play their games, the idea of having an application installed on the target machine may become more desirable than hanging out on portal webpages with advertisements before the menu screen. And it seems that Adobe has more tricks up its sleeve for Adobe AIR, so watch for this technology to grow into a more viable gaming platform.
5) Google Chrome OS
This is probably the most significant game changer that has occurred. I don’t think it has been largely discussed, but the Google OS is a boon to all Flash Game developers. The Google OS is simply a Linux shell that runs an enhanced Chrome browser. The Google website already has almost every major application that one would need on their website – from having Word, Powerpoint or Excel in Google Docs, to uploading and sharing pictures and video, to email.
If the majority of functionality, calculations and storage are done on the server-level, this frees up the Netbook to be even less expensive and portable than ever before. And in this downturn economy, buying a cheap computer that has all this functionality will take off. Also, consider that in terms of price, simplicity and universality of the Netbook, this will open up a new demographic to computers than ever before. The Netbook, combined with Google OS, is primed to be the “Wii” of PC-gaming.
Did I mention games? That is the one thing that the new Google OS would need is games – specifically browser-based games. It is almost a given that the new Chrome OS would be able to run Flash 10 on Linux. This completely new demographic of gamers would need games for their Netbooks. And not just games you can play from a portal, but fully immersive experiences that take up the whole screen. The very experience that is missing from portal-centric Flash games that are currently out there.
What the Google OS does is creates the very platform that Flash games need – an operating system where all its functionality runs on the server through a browser. This makes Flash the perfect platform for gaming experiences on its new OS.
And did I mention that Adobe AIR works on Linux?
July 29th, 2009 on 6:24 am
Great post, with some really interesting points. Flash on smartphones, with multi-touch and accelerometer support certainly opens up some new possibilities for us game devs. I just hope that Adobe will make a system for getting flash content on to mobile devices, and monetising it, as well as Apple has done with the App store. Or will the flash content be limited to web-based apps?
One point which you haven’t raised, is the introduction of micro-payments, which I see as a definite game changer. With Mochi ads, Nonoba and others running the systems now, we could see a huge income spike for Flash games devs. I’m wondering how well the public will take to paying for what was previously free though…
July 29th, 2009 on 9:28 am
Great article, Paolo! You lost me at “Chrome”, but burying all those links in there really helps drive your point home.
i actually spoke with one of the Silverlight guys at the Casual Connect conference last week, and he was basically admitting that Silverlight was trash for gaming, and that they were focusing almost exclusively on media – online video streaming, as with Boxee.
But my game dev Jeff just told me yesterday that they’re looking to integrate XNA with Silverlight. Sounds alright, but i think it would mean that users would have to download .NET for anything to work. Pain!
So in short, who knows?
July 29th, 2009 on 9:49 am
Nice post, and a lot of stuff I would have never though of
Interesting idea about AIR. Personally, I’m not a big fan of downloading games from online. I don’t like having too much stuff installed on my computer. But, BigFishGames proves that there is a huge market for it, so perhaps this is the way some flash games could go.
Good point about Netbooks. Since netbooks aren’t as powerful as normal laptops and desktops, it means the games people play with them will most likely come from the internet. Meaning that as the netbook market grows, so should flash game plays online and (with the help of AIR) off.
July 29th, 2009 on 10:18 am
Great post. Lots of information to siphon through.
Personally, I don’t see Google OS making a significant impact on Flash games. Partly because I don’t see them gaining a large market share, but also because I think most people who will buy Google OS will already have been online somewhere else… they will just start using a different platform. Whether they are using Google, Mac, Windows, etc… the total number of gamers will stay the same, just what platform they use could be different.
One area that I think you overlooked is Flash on TVs. Bringing Flash into your living room will open the door to a wide population and will also allow Flash to compete directly with Consoles. Maybe not with graphics or budgets, but we all know that those two aspects are not required for a quality good game.
Anyways, great post. Lots of links for me to follow up on this afternoon. Thx again.
July 29th, 2009 on 10:19 am
Thanks everyone! These are great comments. I will have to write a follow-up post specifically aiming at Google OS and how Flash game developers can capitalize on it.
July 29th, 2009 on 11:27 am
Excellent thoughts, Paolo, particularly the last two.
I suppose, as you imply, a big reason downloadable games haven’t been so popular among developers is that there’re less ways to make money through them. The only game that springs to my mind is Windosill.
The way you describe netbooks, they sound like a new form of casual gamer console!
July 29th, 2009 on 11:59 am
That’s exactly what I am thinking Michael! And I will write another follow-up article soon describing why I think it is, and how Flash will play a role.
July 30th, 2009 on 12:31 am
Nice overview. I’d have to say I’m inclined to believe all the pro-Flash propaganda that’s been going around, with this, Danc’s Flash Love Letter, and uh, other stuff…
I’d imagine that the reason developers haven’t been doing much with AIR is that most of them are used to making games to put on portals, and haven’t thought to investigate alternative distribution methods. That’s why I haven’t. :p But now that you mention it, I’ll look into it.
Also an interesting possibility with the Google Chrome OS. I hadn’t heard of it before, but it certainly would be cool to see something like that take off.
July 30th, 2009 on 2:28 pm
Personally, i’m waiting for GPU accelerated pixel bender and drawTriangles + z-buffer. And please _NO_ real 3d api – this will kill the platform.
July 31st, 2009 on 3:41 am
I agree that it will dominate the web domain, but more client side I think Java will take over and perhaps we will see Java/Flash hybrid programs.
August 1st, 2009 on 10:28 am
Honestly, Flash is only good for small games. If systems like O3D turn out to work well they could replace Flash when it comes to browser-based gaming.
August 1st, 2009 on 10:29 am
Oops, I forgot about the whole new techniques in HTML5, like animated and interactive SVG, as well as the video tags that can be heavily manipulated.
August 1st, 2009 on 12:24 pm
It’s another amazing technology which advances the way I believe computing will go and it is an opening for the next generation of 3D games. However, I am a big fan of 2D games and believe that they will never be pushed to the wayside. In fact, I believe that 2D gaming is also going to have their own revolution. Remember the mantra – gameplay over glitz!