Apple is losing its marbles

I’m probably the millionth person to speak about this whole situation with Apple… And in truth, I intended to write a whole manifesto on the subject.  But instead, I wrote a short article about it on BittyBash.com.

I also talked about why I’m going with Flash as my first game under my new company.

The love letter created a lot of buzz and a lot of enthusiasm among Flash Game blogs. Now micropayments have suddenly become the next big talking point among the larger Flash distribution networks. But I think that this is the self-defeating attitude of Flash Game Developers coming to the surface again. Instead of settling for fractions of a penny, now developers have the courage to ask for whole pennies instead. Micropayments are a step up, but I think that ultimately it misses the point. However, not very many Flash Game developers believe that it is possible to ask for more money, especially in this downturn economy.

What people don’t see is that Flash is set to become the game development platform of choice for one of the biggest revolutions in the computer industry. I will explain in this article the market forces churning under the surface that are about to erupt and will place the indie Flash Game Developer at the forefront of this revolution.

The Technological Rat Race

What is the "Singularity" made of?

For the computer buyer, it seems like the moment you purchase a computer, you already own an obsolete piece of machinery. Every two to three years, what was once a bleeding-edge computer now needs a massive overhaul to even play the latest games or run the latest software. Often you need a new graphics card, denser memory chips, more hard drive space, and perhaps even a new CPU and motherboard to support it. Before you know it, you’ve spent hundreds, if not thousands of dollars only to have to do it again in another two to three years, just to keep playing the latest and greatest games.

But if you are not a gamer, and just need a computer for email, some word documents and excel, and to play a couple match-3 games, the level of technology, data storage, and information at your fingertips is more than absurd. Already you can buy a half-terabyte hard drive for less than $100. All the pictures I’ve taken of my family for the past 5 years can be stored on a single Compact Flash card on my digital camera. All the music my wife has bought on iTunes, and all our CDs can fit on a single thumb-drive. This is tremendous computing power, and apart from games, the average user only uses a fraction of a computer’s capabilities.

There is more computer in your cell phone than in the Moonlanding.

All of us are compelled to keep up with this technology rat race, and for the most part, we do. We don’t understand that this trend in computing is not a predetermined path of technology but an orchestrated effort of only a few corporations.  But what is happening under the surface is a seismic shift that will change computing forever.

Tremors

I think it is an understatement to say that a lot of people complained about Microsoft Vista. Some of it was typical Microsoft hate speech and some of it were legitimate complaints about the bugs it contained, the harassing security features, the system slowness, etc. The question that was on the minds of many gamers was, “How does this improve my gaming experience?” And when the feature sets between DirectX 9.0x and DirectX 10 were put side-by-side, many gamers resisted the idea of going through the trouble of upgrading for a couple new neat shaders. XP was good enough and even continues to be good enough for the most recent PC games.  And from the developers side, pushing more and more photorealism only increases production costs.  As it is, even double platinum titles are barely breaking even.  So even devlopers are not fully inclined to use the latest technology for less returns.

Can you tell which on is DirectX 10?

To Microsoft’s credit, they have done a wonderful job on Windows 7 in removing all the issues that Vista created. They are a lot better at meeting expectations instead of hyping a product and sorely disappointing their customers. But the one thing they aren’t talking about is that lingering question that looms over their financial future, “Is it worth the upgrade?” And the truth that no one at Microsoft wants to say is “No. It’s not worth it.”

Consider the technological advances we’ve seen in office technology from the last 15 years from Windows 3.1, to Windows 95/98, to Windows XP. Remember the early versions of Word Perfect from the early 90s and compare it to the stability, usefulness and ubiquity of Microsoft Word 2002. But since Office 2002, what have been some of the innovations to the Office Suite by Microsoft? A bigger menu called “the ribbon”? Just how many ways can you really improve a Word Processor, much less an Office suite of spreadsheets, presentations, and word processing? Is it worth dumping another couple thousand dollars on a new computer and a whole new operating system, just so you can have the latest office productivity suite that sports a brand-spanking-new “ribbon”?

Both the U.S. Federal Government and large-sized corporations are giving their answer of “no” to Microsoft quite profoundly. In fact, it is quite easy to see many desktop computers in government agencies still running IE 6 and Office 2000-2002. Because of the expense of upgrading all these computers in both large corporations and government agencies, consultants and software developers are often required to create web-based applications so that they can work around the limitations of the hardware of each desktop. In fact, it is not surprising to see requirements that the web-app must run specifically on IE 6.

Stuck on IE 6

When Microsoft forced the issue and upgraded all computers to IE 7 with a mandatory middle-of-the-night Windows Update, it actually crippled several government agencies from doing work. This is because all the IE 6 compatible web-applications that were created for the government were reliant on IE 6-specific exploits and bug-fixes that ran in code. Once those exploits and bugs were fixed and no longer existent in IE 7, the applications suddenly stopped working. Some of those web-applications were critical enterprise systems.  Despite the initial manditory upgrade, Microsoft had to quickly release to the public a way to uninstall IE 7 and rollback to IE 6. This is why we will see IE 8 with adjustable compatibility settings.

Shaky Legs

Computer manufacturers are beginning to see what is coming, and the constant drive for the latest and greatest hardware is reaching the point of diminishing returns. Not to mention, manufacturers are probably on uneasy terms with Microsoft, especially since the draconian tactics to cut off all licenses for XP-based builds. Seeing a new opportunity, a new target demographic, and utilizing the advances in computing technology, manufacturers are starting to produce a complete new product: the Netbook.

The Netbook

The Netbook is a small low-cost computer designed to have a long-lasting battery, 3G connectivity and with the minimal of features to cover the 90% use-case of email, word, spreadsheets and simple games that the average user needs. Netbooks have garnered mix reactions from the population, but it has opened the doors for many people who could not otherwise afford or consider owning a computer. And with the sudden downturn in the economy, Netbooks are in high demand.

Not surprisingly both Microsoft and Apple have not received the Netbook very willingly. Almost dismissively, Microsoft initially announced releasing a Windows 7 “Starter version” for the Netbook which will only allow the user to have 3 applications running at a time. It has been speculated that if one of those applications is anti-virus software, that doesn’t leave much room for computing. Steve Jobs even said “We don’t know how to make a $500 computer that’s not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that.”

But this is not surprising. Both Microsoft and Apple make their bread and butter by enticing consumers to buy the latest technology – to constantly upgrade software and hardware and keep the rat race going. So it is only natural that both Microsoft and Apple try to cut the “technologically backward” movement of cheap under-powered Netbooks from under the knee.

The Seismic Shift

In the middle of Microsoft and Apple pushing to keep the status quo of the technological rat race with manufacturers dragging their feet, Google throws its hat into the ring with “Google Chrome OS.” So far, the market has met Chrome OS with a bit of stunned silence, and elicited laughing scoffs from Apple and Microsoft. However, deep down underneath, I think that the full realization of what is to come is only beginning to dawn on the market.

In a short sentence, Google spoke volumes when introducing their new product: “The software architecture is simple — Google Chrome running within a new windowing system on top of a Linux kernel.”

Google Chrome OS

I think that a lot of people were like me and didn’t notice what Google was silently up to these past 5 years. When Google Docs was created, I passed it off as an interesting novelty that you could create Word-like documents directly in a browser. When Calendar was introduced, I passed it off as a neat social networking event planner. Only in the wake of Chrome OS, does it come into full light the extend of what Google has done in amused silence and under the guise of novelty. Right here on the Internet is the full capabilities of an operating system and one of the most powerful office suites ever created. With just Google Documents and Calendar alone, and for the price of 4 Netbooks, you have the full capabilities of a fully integrated Windows Office with Exchange server.

There are a number of other changes that net-based computing does that would appeal to the casual user. With a light-weight operating system and an emphasis on storing documents online, the fear of data loss and crashes is minimized. Viral attacks and spyware is minimized. No longer do you have to worry about upgrading your machine for the latest office suite, because all the fixes are done on the Internet – at no cost to you. And because of the dedicated Linux kernel the hardware is freed up to produce the fastest possible performance for the least amount of computing power which can further reduce the component cost of the entire build. You may see fully capable Netbooks for as little as $100 and a higher availability of computers to schoolchildren and to the elderly at those prices. This creates an even greater demographic surge into the computer age.  If we are seeing 20 million new Netbook users in 2009, how many sales are we going to have when Chrome OS hits the streets late next year?

The Flash Gaming Revolution

Google has created a huge number of applications that users will need once their laptops are reduced to highly-streamlined web browsers. But the one thing that they have not created is media. To spearhead this effort, Google has partnered with Adobe in the creation of the new Chrome OS. In combination with Adobe’s effort to streamline performance of Flash to the point where it can soon be installed on the next generation of smartphones, and with Adobe’s partnership with nVidia to allow the Flash API to access the GPU, Flash will be able to perform faster and with less taxing resources than ever before.

Flash, a staple of the Internet experience, must be a given feature of the new Google OS to be complete. This allows users to access video and music through sources like Hulu and YouTube. But most of all, Flash gives Netbook users access to games – YOUR games.  You see, access to the Linux kernel on a Netbook would be incredibly tricky to program. But why make games on the OS-level and try to crack open the Linux drivers when Chrome OS is already running Flash?

One of the biggest hurdles for taking Flash Game Programming seriously is that a Flash game runs in a windowed browser. But with Chrome OS, web pages are considered to be fully fledged applications with full screen capabilities. Suddenly, your Flash Game could very well take up the whole screen of a Netbook computer without the intrusion of the browser’s borders and address bar and it is no different than a Windows game running DirectX in fullscreen mode – except for the fact that it was ten thousand times easier and thousands of dollars cheaper using Flash CS4.

The other big hurdle outside of the browser window is that people prefer to download and run games from their own PC. Thus when given a choice between a full screen version of Bejewelled versus a browser-enclosed version, people will spend the $20 and get the download. But when the only way to play a game is through the browser, you suddenly have a captive audience and can charge full price for an Internet-based Flash Game, validated through your own site portal and customer login.

Aftershocks

I think that the current model of chasing the latest operating system upgrades and fastest hardware is unsustainable. We have hit the point of diminishing returns and people are tired of the rat race and in this economy will not cough up the money for only a couple more shaders from the latest version of DirectX which even developers are hesitant to use. If we have learned anything from the Wii-phenomenon is that it is all about gameplay over glitz and it is not technology that makes great games, but innovative and compelling design.

Once computing takes this hard turn and goes closer towards heavy cloud-computing with light-weight and ubiquitous laptops, gaming will be changed for ever. And at the forefront of it all will be the Flash Game Developer.

Are you ready?

Flash does not to seem to be faring better in the current economy.  Sponsorships and eCPMs are down.  And as if the consternation of lowered wages for indie Flash developers couldn’t be worse, Greg Mclanahan, the Community and Developer Relations Manager from Kongregate, stepped on the proverbial landmine by saying to Flash game developers “don’t expect to be paid by the hour” and “no one asked you to make these games anyway.” As if the economy hasn’t already knocked down the spirits of many Flash entrepreneurs, this was like getting kicked in the groin from who was thought to be a partner in the Flash gaming revolution.

With all these issues, there are some who would dare to tell Flash developers to charge money for their games and to no longer accept the status quo of begging for sponsorships and getting fractions of a penny for every ad that is seen on your game.  This may seem insane, especially in this economy, but here are 5 reasons why this is not only a viable business strategy, but also because there are serious market eruptions that will happen in the next several months that will put indie Flash game developers on the forefront of a new age of gaming.

1) Flash on Smartphones

While everyone is running towards the iPhone gold rush, and having to learn how to program on a proprietary API, Adobe is busting open the door for Flash developers to have their games on the next generation of Smartphones.  You won’t have to learn a completely new language or buy proprietary hardware or software to get your games onto these cellphones, Adobe is doing most of the grunt work for you.  And while everyone and their uncle is gunning to make a buck on the iPhone with Apple taking a cut off profits from your games, the larger Smartphone audience will be clamoring for the same love and attention from entrepreneurial game makers.  And it doesn’t hurt that Flash will come with built-in multi-touch support.

2) Flash and GPUs

One of the major setbacks of Flash has always been performance.  Actionscript 3.0 has significantly increased the speed and potential for many Flash games, including the ability to show true 3D objects.  But software acceleration isn’t good enough for us and Adobe has been working hard with Nvidia to allow Flash to finally access hardware for greater acceleration of 3D effects in the Flash player.  This is incredible potential for indie Flash developers who want to utilize even more effects, animations and game play elements that were previously out of reach for lack of processor power.  The last performance hurdle for Flash is about to be cleared.

3) Facebook and MySpace

Both these social networking conglomerates have been opening their doors and reaching out for more games that use their APIs.  There is huge potential for the savvy developer to create the next set of game portals on highly viral networks, all in the same web application.  Right now there is an abundance of AJAX-based games on Facebook, but Flash is largely untapped.  This is a goldmine ready to be struck.

4) Adobe AIR

This has been a largely untapped gaming medium that indie Flash developers have been neglecting.  Having a game installed directly on the computer and running on the OS taskbar in fullscreen is a significant step towards full realization of a viable gaming medium for the PC.  I’m not sure why not enough indie game developers have sought to use Adobe AIR to install a game directly on the users computer.  Perhaps in the next several months, when Flash developers start charging money for people to play their games, the idea of having an application installed on the target machine may become more desirable than hanging out on portal webpages with advertisements before the menu screen.  And it seems that Adobe has more tricks up its sleeve for Adobe AIR, so watch for this technology to grow into a more viable gaming platform.

5) Google Chrome OS

This is probably the most significant game changer that has occurred.  I don’t think it has been largely discussed, but the Google OS is a boon to all Flash Game developers.  The Google OS is simply a Linux shell that runs an enhanced Chrome browser.  The Google website already has almost every major application that one would need on their website – from having Word, Powerpoint or Excel in Google Docs, to uploading and sharing pictures and video, to email.

If the majority of functionality, calculations and storage are done on the server-level, this frees up the Netbook to be even less expensive and portable than ever before.  And in this downturn economy, buying a cheap computer that has all this functionality will take off.  Also, consider that in terms of price, simplicity and universality of the Netbook, this will open up a new demographic to computers than ever before.  The Netbook, combined with Google OS, is primed to be the “Wii” of PC-gaming.

Did I mention games?  That is the one thing that the new Google OS would need is games – specifically browser-based games.  It is almost a given that the new Chrome OS would be able to run Flash 10 on Linux.  This completely new demographic of gamers would need games for their Netbooks.  And not just games you can play from a portal, but fully immersive experiences that take up the whole screen.  The very experience that is missing from portal-centric Flash games that are currently out there.

What the Google OS does is creates the very platform that Flash games need – an operating system where all its functionality runs on the server through a browser.  This makes Flash the perfect platform for gaming experiences on its new OS.

And did I mention that Adobe AIR works on Linux?

Anime USA Mascot for 2008 - Unpublished

I’ve only mentioned it my profile that I am an “aspiring artist” but I just realized that I haven’t actually posted any of my art on my blog.  To the left is an unpublished piece I proposed for Anime USA 2008, a Japanese Animation convention held near Washington, DC.

The theme for that year’s convention was “kami”, the spirits or gods of Japanese Mythology.  My piece was not selected (and thus unpublished), but in all fairness, it could not hold a candle to some of the amazing digital painters who did the art for the convention.

I’ve long tried to do digital painting, but I can only do cell-shaded artwork.  The reason for this is that I am color-blind and so when it comes to the subtle shades of painting, I cannot see them.  But cell-shading is very high-contrast colors and I can use the assistance of the eye-dropper tool to pick out colors I know to be correct.

The piece was sketched, inked and colored in less than 8 hours because it was a rush concept piece I did for the convention.  The inking and coloring was actually done in Adobe Flash CS3.

I realize that I can do all the art as well as programming for any Flash game I would develop, but I’ve found that I can make very little headway if I start working that way.  When I start programming, it is hard for me to disengage from the code, and start drawing the assets I need.  The reverse is also true.  When I am drawing I just want to draw without the time pressure of getting back to programming.

Thus, I am reteaming with the artist of Space ROX, Jonathan Stuart, to see how much further we can get on the project and attempt to release our final product by the end of summer.

As much as my ego wants to do everything for the project, my experience as a programmer as well as my sense of the project scope dictates to me that the work needs to be divided.  Specialization of labor will allow us to produce 4x-8x more than if I continued as a one-man team.

Over 5000 Arrows at 30 fps

Mike Grundvig posted on his blog how he got this to work and after reading it over twice, it is very “old school” in how it is accomplished.

The way Flash does programmatic animation is pretty simple.  You take a MovieClip instance on the screen and you simply adjust the x,y values to get it to move.  Flash takes care of the redrawing of the screen for you with no flicker. What Mike Grundvig did was do all the drawing himself.  Instead of using Flash to draw the final output on the screen, he takes all the calculations on the back-end, draws onto a BitmapData object and swaps out the resulting BitmapData with the Bitmap currently being displayed.  In other words, he is doing a kind of low-level “double buffering” using Flash Bitmaps.

When I was a kid programming in BASIC in the Apple II+, I would wonder how computer games made smooth animations.  My problem was when I created a picture and I wanted to “flip” to the next frame of the animation, I had to clear the screen and draw the next frame.  The clearing of the screen caused a moment of blackness before the next frame was rendered.  What I didn’t understand was how to “double buffer” which is something much lower level than I could have achieved in BASIC.  I had to understand assembly language to accomplish that.

Effectively what “double buffering” does is skip clearing out the screen.  Instead of working on 1 screen, you are working on 2 screens.  First you draw the screen.  And instead of clearing it off for the next screen, you do all your drawing logic on the second screen while the first screen is being displayed.  Once drawing is completed, you simply flip from the first screen to the second screen like a flip-book.  That removes the flicker effect of having to draw, erase, and draw again.

Modern graphical engines like Flash take care of this logic for you and are incredibly efficient.  Thus, instead of having to figure out how to draw when you move your MovieClip 10 pixels to the right on the next frame, Flash does all the drawing for you.  But it comes at an expense of CPU cycles to figure out all that drawing logic for you.  You can see the effects of this drainage in Space ROX when I started adding particle effects and Asteroids.

Space ROX V 0.5

Now compare the performance of only a couple hundred particles in my Space ROX demo to the thousands of arrow particles shown in Mike Grundvig’s demo here.

Sometimes it pays to go back to the basics.